EUR/USD
匯市收盤：英國退歐成真，GBP/USD 重寫 30 年新低、EUR/USD 亦直線下跌
英國退歐陣營意外贏得勝利，重挫 EUR/USD 與 GBP/USD，其中，EUR/USD 盤中大跌 472 點至日低 1.0913，而後略回彈，截至 4 點收低在 1.1145，GBP/USD 一度下挫 11.1% 至 1.3229，創 1985 年廣場協議以來最低水準，截至 4 點走低至 1.3794。另受累於歐 元與英鎊雙殺，加上避險買盤推動日圓強勢，EUR/JPY、GBP/JPY 盤中重貶 9.34%、 15.55%，截至 4 點各走低於 114.76、142.039。
股債收盤：英國退歐陰霾重挫歐股，德 10 年債殖利率再創史低
英國投票支持退出歐盟，市場人氣大受衝擊，Euro STOXX 50 指數盤初即暴跌 9.92%， 截至 4 點收跌 8.62%至 2776.06 點，避險資金瘋狂湧入債市，美 10 年債殖利率盤中下 跌 34.17 個基點至 2012/7 新低 1.4041%，截至 4 點收低 21.66 個基點至 1.5292%，德 10 年債殖利率重返負值區間、再創史低至負 0.170%，截至 4 點收低 16.3 個基點至負 0.070%，投資者逃離風險資產，二線國家公債遭拋售，義、西、葡、西、愛 10 年債殖 利率截至 4 點分別收高 13.4、13.6、35.3、139、2 個基點至 1.534%、1.602%、3.443%、 9.169%、0.795%，二線國家與德 10 年利差亦全數走擴。
焦點事件：英國決議退歐，法、荷、丹麥等國反歐洲政黨立刻疾呼應舉行公投
英國退歐公投最終以退歐陣營取得 51.89%得票率決定脫離歐盟，英國民眾震驚市場的 決定不僅將衝擊歐盟一體化進程，甚而可能助長其他國家的反歐盟勢力，其中，法國與 荷蘭反歐洲的政黨領袖已於今日發表聲明，呼籲法國與荷蘭人民亦值得擁有公投的權 力，丹麥反對黨亦表示希望就歐盟成員國身分舉行公投。根據此前調查顯示，許多成員 國對於歐盟的不滿程度並不亞於英國，如荷蘭約有 46%受訪者對歐盟持負面看法，德國 與英國比例為 48%，西班牙與法國更高達 49%、61%，其餘近半數受訪者認為應就是否 留在歐盟舉行公投的國家還包括義大利、瑞典、匈牙利、比利時、波蘭等，而匈牙利、 斯洛伐克與波蘭及義大利等國政府亦對歐盟的要求越來越充滿敵意，英國決定退歐，可 能讓各國加大對歐盟維護某些關鍵原則(如支持司法獨立)的抵制力量。考慮到法國、德國 與荷蘭均將於 2017 年舉行國會或聯邦議會大選，德、法領袖要像過往一樣攜手促進歐 盟一體化進程恐心有餘而力不足，政壇紛擾不斷，EUR/USD 後市難言樂觀。週末聚焦 德、法、比利時、荷蘭、盧森堡與義大利等國外交部長將赴柏林開會，討論當前歐洲的 政治問題，扣除掉英國的歐盟 27 國談判人員亦將於週日聚首布魯塞爾召開會議。
3-6 個月展望：英國退歐衝擊促債市飆漲，ECB 或被迫寬鬆，EUR/USD 偏弱
利多因素：1. 受惠 ECB 寬鬆的政策環境，歐元區經濟緩步復甦，失業率已降至 2011/8 來新低 10.2%，就業市場捎來佳音，或可望漸進帶動民眾消費意願，再添增長動能，利 好 EUR/USD 表現。2. 美 5 月 NFP 增幅僅 3.8 萬人，遜色的就業數據表現令市場對美國 升息前景的信心大受衝擊，6 月 FOMC 決策下修對今明兩年經濟展望，點陣圖顯示委員 對利率後市看法更趨溫和，升息前景對美元指數助益估不大。
日圓呈避險去處 新台幣浮現貶值壓力:
Why Japan will pay a big price for Britain’s vote to leave the E.U.
In the 24 hours after Brexit, Japan lost nearly the same amount of wealth as after the 2011 nuclear meltdown that threatened to leave a wide part of the country uninhabitable. (The Nikkei bounced back a little Monday and continued to rise Tuesday, gaining .92 percent.)
Last week’s British referendum vote created a surge of global uncertainty not seen since the 2008 financial crisis. But where many countries are most concerned about new trade barriers and political instability across Europe, Japan is bracing for the Brexit pain because of its currency, which tends to strengthen any time investors worry about the world’s path. And Japan, to put it bluntly, does not want a strong yen.
Countries typically have a degree of control over the value of their currencies. But there’s just one problem: Economists fear Japan is nearly out of tools to fight back and deflate the yen.
The story of how the world’s third-largest economy arrived in such a vulnerable place is directly linked to its strategy over the past few years, when Japan — like many advanced countries — was using every last policy tool just to muddle along, in this case by keeping its currency as weak as possible.
Well before the Brexit, the Bank of Japan was on an unprecedented bond-buying binge. Interest rates were already negative. And for all this, Japan had earned itself an unsatisfying half-recovery, where wages were stagnant and growth was flat — but at least its big export-heavy titans were raking in record profits. The Nikkei between 2012 and 2015 had been one of the world’s fastest-growing stock markets — the one economic achievement for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who had pledged to pull Japan out of its two-decade stagnation.
But Japan earned that recovery by making a risky bargain: Its central bank was using crisis-time tools during a period of relative tranquility, meaning it had little in its pocket to combat the next crisis.
“Now, there’s not much the Bank of Japan can do” to help the situation, said Takuji Okubo, the chief economist at Japan Macro Advisors in Tokyo. “We could argue that the Bank of Japan has nearly exhausted its means to ease monetary conditions.”
留言列表
